Thursday, July 31, 2008

What will Telenor do with the IPO?

Not only does the Grameenphone IPO has a 1700% premium attached on it, it also gets Telenor $300 million to fool around with. (As a sidenote, companies give dividends on the face value of a share, so a 25% dividend will yeild you Tk 0.25 for a Tk. 18 investment). So what will Telenor do with this cash?

Just for comparision, Grameenphone makes around $150 in profits a year, of which they get to send $75 million to Oslo. So this IPO is bigger than their profits, so to speak.

Invest in another industry
Makes the least sense, but still something Grameenphone would like to do. They already have a huge network of retail centers which they could use for better things. This could include a remittance or other retail services such as insurance. But given the current headaches that they have with their sliding market share, its better to focus on what they know best.

Buy Spectrum
This is the obvious choice to adding more users. Reserve more spectrum than what Grameenphone really needs. Yes spectrum is like real estate, and the prices can only go up in the future as Banglalink and AKtel gear up.

Invest in Bangladesh
The Fixed Deposit rate in Bangladesh is at a all time high, just hovering below 15%. This may make good sense to invest the money in an account and continue to get a nice yeild.

Invest in the stock market
Yes, not only the stock market, but in their own stock. Play with it a little. Push it up then sell, sell, sell. Only the small investors are set to lose money. This strategy was useful for many stock brokers (mainly those associated with a bank).

Invest in infrastructure
Very UNLIKELY. You can forget about a Grameenphone 3G network. The only reason Citycell stopped providing the outdated AMPS network was because no one would produce an AMPS phone. Same goes to Grameenphone. They will not invest in upgrades. You can also forget about network expansion as you can't really expand beyond Bangladeshi borders. (Maybe try running a secret VOiP in India?)

Buy Teletalk

The only compatible company that has more spectrum than it really needs. SK Telecom is also bidding for a piece of Teletalk. Would make sense if Grameenphone to pick up this company as soon as possible.

Send money back
Telenor has had a very tough year. They blame the Asian market for slowing down while their home market is still solid. You can see in the 6 month stock price (on the NYSE) graph on the left, what's going on with the Telenor stock.

Telenor Pakistan didn't do too well despite a lack of VOiP activities. The 20 million customers landmark in Bangladesh was achieved under some duress. They reduced their outlook. But still its nothing as major as a lack of cash.

What do you think they should do?

1 comment:

Mathew H. said...

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